There is a
theory described at
which
suggests a solution to the Fermi Paradox.
It proposes that there are many space-faring technological civilizations
among the stars and planets of our galaxy, but that we have not detected them,
because they are hiding. Furthermore,
the Dark Forest Theory (DFT) posits that they are hiding not only from us, but
also, from each other.
And with
good reason.
In the
galaxy presumed by the DFT, every technological civilization that arises has
one priority: to survive. As in any wilderness or frontier, only the
fittest survive. There are two main
methods of doing this. One of them is to
eliminate (kill) all threats. The other
method is to hide from those threats that one cannot eliminate.
It can be
argued that any civilization that does not successfully execute one or both of
these survival methods does not survive.
Those who failed no longer live.
Therefore, all the surviving exo-planetary alien civilizations have
either eliminated the threats against them, or are hiding.
As
reasonable as this theory sounds, there are those who argue against it.
The
dissenters propose that, in order to survive, an alien civilization has to be,
well, civilized. Being civilized, means
that a society has to solve its problems in an orderly way that furthers its
progress. In the early stages, this
means using the “kill or be killed” policy, but in the later stages, there
comes a time when this becomes counter-productive. War is expensive. Instead of producing wealth, it destroys
it. Even though warfare does incentivize
technological advancements, it does so only in the early stages. As the destructive potential of advanced
technology increases, the risk of both sides destroying each other reaches
unacceptable levels. Therefore, the
optimum survival strategy requires cooperation.
Let’s call that, the Friendly Aliens Theory (FAT).
If there are
numerous exo-planetary alien civilizations in the galaxy, one of these theories
may be correct. Indeed, some combination
of them may apply. For example, they may
be at war with each other, but in circumstances that favor defense over
offense. One might compare that
condition to the situation in World War One, where both opposing sides were
safer in their own trenches, than they were when attacking across the “no man’s
land” that separated them.
The main
problem with the FA Theory, compared to the DF Theory, is that, if the aliens
are not in hiding, then we have not yet solved the Fermi Paradox. If all the neighbors are friendly, they
should stop in and say hello. Even if
the distances are too great, they should at least turn the front porch light
on, that is, to send some sort of signal.
Instead, we see only darkness; we hear only silence.
What is it, then? Should we favor the Dark Forest Theory, the
Friendly Alien Theory, or the Trenches Theory?
Before we
settle on one of these, we should carefully consider the possibility that none
of them is even close to being right. We
may be anthropomorphizing, that is, assuming that the aliens are like us, at
least in terms of how they (and we) solve the problem of survival.
Let’s
speculate. Let’s do so reasonably.
Let’s
speculate that life has arisen on faraway planets. Let’s assume that on a dozen or so of them,
life arose billions of years ago, as it did on earth, but that on those dozen
or more planets, either the event occurred long before it did on earth, or
else, that it afterward, developed much more quickly than we did. In either case, we are reasonably speculating
that any space-faring civilization is much older than ours. Indeed, even the most advanced civilization
on earth is only about five thousand years ahead of the hunter-gatherer phase. Five thousand years compared to a galaxy is
the blink of an eye.
Moreover, because technology moves at an ever-faster pace, we have advanced amazingly far in only the last five hundred years. In less than a century we both invented the first airplane, and traveled to the moon and back.
What this
tells us is that, an exo-civilization that is even five thousand years ahead of
us could be so far advanced that, to us, its capabilities would seem
magical. “Any
sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Arthur C.
Clarke, "Profiles of The Future", 1961
Five thousand years may seem like a long time (okay, it
is a long time), but there may be alien civilizations that are a million years,
or much more than that, older than ours.
At compound interest, at the accelerating pace of technological
advancement, that million years could provide an unimaginable advantage to the
older civilization.
What effect age has on survivability, however, is not the
main issue here. One could propose that
the first interstellar civilization could easily have conquered the entire
galaxy. Or, one could propose that it
chose not to do so, but pursued some other objective, for example, galactic
brotherhood.
The effect of age would very likely mean that a million-year-old
civilization might have become so vastly advanced technologically, that it has
moved into realms that we cannot imagine.
Consider that our scientists now claim to have discovered
the existence of dark matter. Consider
further that, aside from its gravitational effects, we have virtually no idea
what dark matter might be. How much less
we can imagine, then, what could potentially be done by using dark matter?
Is there a science of dark physics? Dark chemistry? Dark biology?
Dark psychology?
Then ask yourself, what else might there be? Are there fundamental laws of nature that we
have not discovered? Might not any
sufficiently advanced alien technology have discovered them, and employed them
in their technology?
To speculate even further, might aliens have harnessed
the powers of pure consciousness? Might
they have moved beyond the need for physical bodies? Might they be able to travel between universes?
What has all this to do with Fermi and the Dark
Forest? Only this: we can only speculate, and our speculations
may be hopelessly wrong.
.
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