The Chance of Intelligent Life in the Universe is Zero

In order for life to exist in our universe, there are requirements that are sometimes loosely calculated by a formula called the Drake Equation.  It multiplies a sequence of numbers, each representing the likelihood of one particular requirement.  Each number is a fraction, and less than one.  The more times you multiply a sequence of such numbers, the smaller the result gets.  For example, if you multiply one-half times one-half, you get one fourth.  Multiply that, times one half, and you get one eighth.  Keep going, and you will get one sixteenth, one over 32, one over 64, and so on, ever smaller and smaller. 

The Drake Equation might start with the chance of a planet having a suitable atmosphere, the right amount of gravity, enough water, a protective magnetic field and so forth.  Each chance is less than one hundred percent, so the final chance gets less and less, closer and closer to zero.

In such an equation, however, one never actually reaches zero—unless one or more of the factors is itself zero.  So, the question arises, are there, in fact, any factors that equal zero?  Let’s get back to that later.

The technique I will use to make my point is first, to make the case for those who disagree with my proposition (that there is zero chance of intelligent life arising in the universe).  Having made the case for them, for those who disagree with me, then next, I will dig deeper, and show the flaw in their reasoning.  First, the case that supports my opponents.

Let us note that even the tiniest chance of something happening, means that it can happen.  As long as the chance is greater than zero, it can happen.  Whether it’s a chance in a million, or one in a billion, or one in trillions of trillions, it is still greater than zero, and that means that it can happen.

Let us also note that, although a chance in a billion seems impossibly small, if you have a billion of something, then that tiny chance increases to a very large chance.  For example, if you have a closed box that has one chance in a billion of having a gold coin in it, it is not even worth your time to open that one box.  However, if you have a billion such boxes, and you have a way of opening all of them in a short time, then the chance of finding at least one gold coin will exceed ninety percent.

The reason for mentioning this is because the Drake equation says that the likelihood of our finding another planet in our galaxy that could generate and sustain intelligent life is very tiny, for any one planet.  However, since the galaxy has billions upon billions of planets, that tiny chance begins to grow much larger.  If we include the billions of galaxies in our calculation, the chance grows enormously larger, Finally, if we theorize that there are uncountable billions of universes, the chance of there being intelligent life in the theorized multi-verse begins to approach one hundred percent, a dead certainty.  Indeed, there might be infinite numbers of technological alien civilizations.

It is for this reason that many people, including scientists, take it almost as a given that our galaxy alone might contain many, highly advanced, alien civilizations which travel among the stars and planets.

However, calculations of chance and probability can produce results that are contrary to expectations.  For example, suppose you have a sequence of fractions, such that each one in the sequence is smaller than the one before—but that sequence of fractions is infinitely large.  Must the total of all those fractions add up to at least one?  The answer is no.  You can indeed, have an infinite number of fractions that add up to less than one.  For example, the fraction one over three (1/3) can be expressed in decimal form as zero point three, followed by an infinite series of threes.  0.33333333333 and on forever.  Each three is a fraction that is smaller than the fraction before it.  There is an infinite sequence of those fractions, and yet, the total never exceeds one third.

Returning to the Drake Equation, then, we can apply this principle.  The equation can yield the result that no matter how many planets or universes one factors in, the increase in the chances of life diminish as one adds more factors.  They never reach one hundred percent.

In support of my opponents, the chance of life arising is, according to the Drake Equation, greater than zero.  Why are they wrong?

The more important principle, the overriding principle, is that life does not arise by chance, but for another reason.  It is caused to arise.  Something inherent in the universe requires life to arise.  As an example of an inherent tendency, planets are formed because gravity acts in the way it does, aggregating atoms and molecules through their mutual attraction.  Therefore, planets do not arise by chance, but because natural law makes their formation inevitable.

In a similar manner, it is theorized that the groups of planets called galaxies, are formed due to the properties of a mysterious particle or principle, referred to as dark matter (particle), or alternatively, as MoND (principle)—not by chance.

The laws of nature are inherent in the universe.  Such laws cannot reasonably be said to have arisen by chance, even in a multi-verse.  There is a law of nature that induces life to form, and once formed, induces it to advance to greater complexity.

This law of nature, or life force, may be purely physical, or it may be something more, something spiritual.  If scientists cannot find a natural explanation for nature, then they are force to look beyond nature. Clearly, nature cannot have come about by natural means, since there were none, until nature existed.