Aliens are Lurking in the Dark Forest—a Serious Scientific Theory—and Beyond

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There is a theory described at

https://mysteriousuniverse.org/2020/01/the-dark-forest-theory-a-grim-answer-for-where-all-the-aliens-are/

which suggests a solution to the Fermi Paradox.  It proposes that there are many space-faring technological civilizations among the stars and planets of our galaxy, but that we have not detected them, because they are hiding.  Furthermore, the Dark Forest Theory (DFT) posits that they are hiding not only from us, but also, from each other.

And with good reason.

In the galaxy presumed by the DFT, every technological civilization that arises has one priority:  to survive.  As in any wilderness or frontier, only the fittest survive.  There are two main methods of doing this.  One of them is to eliminate (kill) all threats.  The other method is to hide from those threats that one cannot eliminate.

It can be argued that any civilization that does not successfully execute one or both of these survival methods does not survive.  Those who failed no longer live.  Therefore, all the surviving exo-planetary alien civilizations have either eliminated the threats against them, or are hiding.

As reasonable as this theory sounds, there are those who argue against it. 

The dissenters propose that, in order to survive, an alien civilization has to be, well, civilized.  Being civilized, means that a society has to solve its problems in an orderly way that furthers its progress.  In the early stages, this means using the “kill or be killed” policy, but in the later stages, there comes a time when this becomes counter-productive.  War is expensive.  Instead of producing wealth, it destroys it.  Even though warfare does incentivize technological advancements, it does so only in the early stages.  As the destructive potential of advanced technology increases, the risk of both sides destroying each other reaches unacceptable levels.  Therefore, the optimum survival strategy requires cooperation.  Let’s call that, the Friendly Aliens Theory (FAT).

If there are numerous exo-planetary alien civilizations in the galaxy, one of these theories may be correct.  Indeed, some combination of them may apply.  For example, they may be at war with each other, but in circumstances that favor defense over offense.  One might compare that condition to the situation in World War One, where both opposing sides were safer in their own trenches, than they were when attacking across the “no man’s land” that separated them.

The main problem with the FA Theory, compared to the DF Theory, is that, if the aliens are not in hiding, then we have not yet solved the Fermi Paradox.  If all the neighbors are friendly, they should stop in and say hello.  Even if the distances are too great, they should at least turn the front porch light on, that is, to send some sort of signal.  Instead, we see only darkness; we hear only silence.

What is it, then?  Should we favor the Dark Forest Theory, the Friendly Alien Theory, or the Trenches Theory?

Before we settle on one of these, we should carefully consider the possibility that none of them is even close to being right.  We may be anthropomorphizing, that is, assuming that the aliens are like us, at least in terms of how they (and we) solve the problem of survival.

Let’s speculate.  Let’s do so reasonably.

Let’s speculate that life has arisen on faraway planets.  Let’s assume that on a dozen or so of them, life arose billions of years ago, as it did on earth, but that on those dozen or more planets, either the event occurred long before it did on earth, or else, that it afterward, developed much more quickly than we did.  In either case, we are reasonably speculating that any space-faring civilization is much older than ours.  Indeed, even the most advanced civilization on earth is only about five thousand years ahead of the hunter-gatherer phase.  Five thousand years compared to a galaxy is the blink of an eye.

Moreover, because technology moves at an ever-faster pace, we have advanced amazingly far in only the last five hundred years.  In less than a century we both invented the first airplane, and traveled to the moon and back.

What this tells us is that, an exo-civilization that is even five thousand years ahead of us could be so far advanced that, to us, its capabilities would seem magical.  “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Arthur C. Clarke, "Profiles of The Future", 1961

Five thousand years may seem like a long time (okay, it is a long time), but there may be alien civilizations that are a million years, or much more than that, older than ours.  At compound interest, at the accelerating pace of technological advancement, that million years could provide an unimaginable advantage to the older civilization.

What effect age has on survivability, however, is not the main issue here.  One could propose that the first interstellar civilization could easily have conquered the entire galaxy.  Or, one could propose that it chose not to do so, but pursued some other objective, for example, galactic brotherhood.

The effect of age would very likely mean that a million-year-old civilization might have become so vastly advanced technologically, that it has moved into realms that we cannot imagine.

Consider that our scientists now claim to have discovered the existence of dark matter.  Consider further that, aside from its gravitational effects, we have virtually no idea what dark matter might be.  How much less we can imagine, then, what could potentially be done by using dark matter?

Is there a science of dark physics?  Dark chemistry?  Dark biology?  Dark psychology?

Then ask yourself, what else might there be?  Are there fundamental laws of nature that we have not discovered?  Might not any sufficiently advanced alien technology have discovered them, and employed them in their technology?

To speculate even further, might aliens have harnessed the powers of pure consciousness?  Might they have moved beyond the need for physical bodies?  Might they be able to travel between universes?

What has all this to do with Fermi and the Dark Forest?  Only this:  we can only speculate, and our speculations may be hopelessly wrong.

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Are UFOs Sinister?

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As I have pointed out previously, most of the UFO theories do not make sense.  For example, if UFOs are spacecraft from an advanced civilization, why do they seem to try to hide, but so often fail to achieve even the primitive level of stealth that earthly aircraft can achieve?

 

There are other paradoxes as well.  For example, what could alien planetary civilizations possibly seek to gain from us?  If they wish to conquer us, they could have done so long ago, with less effort than it takes a bulldozer to destroy an ant hill at a construction site.  They would not even need to expose themselves to our weapons.  They could destroy us from afar, for example, by directing a few large asteroids to smash into our planet.

 

As far as our mineral resources, highly advanced technology could easily synthesize any element or molecule they desire, from hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe.  As the famous science fiction writer, Arthur C Clarke wrote, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

 

One thing that the supposed aliens could gain from us, that they could not manufacture, is knowledge.  While their knowledge of physics is assuredly vastly greater than ours, they might be interested in such things as social structures.  Whether from mere curiosity, or from a more practical motive, they might wish to study us.  However, such studies are best done without interfering with the society being studied.  UFOs (even if they do not exist!) have already exerted some influence on us, if only in our arts and entertainment.

 

Once again, we find that all the theories of UFOs have defects.  There remain only two that have none, or at least, no defects so serious as to disqualify them.  One of them is that UFOs are exactly what the government has been telling us since the famous Roswell incident:  that UFO reports are prompted by misidentified ordinary objects (such as aircraft or stars), or by hoaxes.  Case closed.

 

Even that theory has some holes in it, but so far as we in the general public can prove, it might be right.

 

The other plausible theory is that UFO reports are substantiated accounts of extraordinary phenomena, one of them possibly being that they are space-faring objects which are produced by alien, technological civilizations on distant planets.

 

This theory, while dramatic on the face of it, is not at all unreasonable, considering the size and scope of the observable universe.  Most people who know anything about science seem to accept as a given that such alien civilizations must surely exist.

 

This second theory still presents us with the problems, not so much of who, but of why, which we have already examined.  The question of why, if not plausibly resolved, could disqualify all the theories except the “misidentified objects” theory.

 

If that theory is also wrong, then is there a plausible one?  There is.

 

To consider what that theory might be, we must begin with the plausible premise that the government has at least some knowledge of UFOs that they are hiding from us.  What would the government hide, and why?  What would its purpose be?

 

After all, most people seem already willing, and able, to soberly accept the proposition that alien planetary civilizations exist.  No surprise there.  The public is also willing to accept that UFOs are possibly spacecraft from those aliens.  Again, little surprise.  Those two public attitudes being commonplace, then why would the government hide from us any knowledge it has that UFOs are what many of us already suppose they are?  Wouldn’t the public reaction be little more than a shrug, or at most, an outpouring of curiosity?

 

Apparently, the government does not think so.

 

To be sure, the US Navy has released audio-video evidence of at least one actual, official UFO sighting.  This did not result in public panic, or any of the negative reactions that some have proposed is the reason for secrecy.  The idea that, “the public cannot handle it,” is discredited.

 

That leaves us with this question:  might there actually be some government knowledge that we truly could not handle?  Even if there were no riots, revolutions or other spectacular result, might the public be so disturbed by the facts that confidence in our institutions would collapse, and collapse to a critical degree?

 

My suspicion is that there is evidence, of such a nature, that competent government analysis has concluded that such is the case.  Revealing it would bring about catastrophe.

 

As to what that evidence is, or why the conclusion is so terrible, I can of course only speculate.  But there is the possibility, and I think even the probability, that those high in the government believe it.

 

Imagine what would happen if the president of the United States, or perhaps a respected international body of authorities, began a speech, televised worldwide, which began with some words such as these:

 

“Ladies and gentlemen of the world, we have incontrovertible news about the UFOs.  The news is bad.  It is very bad.  We have been, and continue to be, completely at the mercy of a powerful force beyond our control.  That force is sinister, and it has no mercy.  Thus far, we have appeased it. The appeasement involves taking steps that you would, under ordinary circumstances, find utterly and unspeakably abhorrent.  We do not know how much longer we can stave off the inevitable doom we face.  Perhaps we can do so for years, even centuries.  But, the sacrifices now being made will soon become obvious.  They will be painful.  Prepare yourselves, because they involve you and your loved ones.  They are these:”

 

This theory has only one factor in its favor:  it fits all the known facts better than any other theory so far proposed.
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UFOs Are Now Officially Real--But What, Exactly, Are They ?

For decades, the US government has dismissed reports of Unidentified Flying Objects, known more familiarly as “flying saucers.”  Pilots learned that, reporting what they saw, could end their careers.  Their very sanity could be called into question.

 

That policy actually created a threat to national security.  Military pilots who were intimidated from reporting what they thought were extraordinary airborne objects, could just as easily have been discouraged from reporting actual enemy threats from communist or terrorist nations. 

 

With the advent of advanced radar and optics, and with millions of people carrying video-capable cell phones, the danger to national security has given way to the far lesser danger of embarrassment to the government.  It may be only a matter of time before coordinated sightings by radar, pilots, and civilian witnesses on the ground, become so widespread that official denials will be seen as ludicrous.

 

Moreover, when the government tells thousands of its citizens that, “You did not see what you saw,” the trust in government will erode dangerously.

 

Now that we have admitted that there is a problem—the first step toward solving it—there arises the question, just what the heck is it that so many of our friends are seeing?

 

The first answer that pops into the minds of many people is—space aliens, intelligent life from technologically advanced planets far, far away.

 

While this answer is not entirely implausible, there are very good reasons to doubt it.  I call this answer the “Superman” theory.  “Look up in the sky, it’s a bird, it’s a plane,” it’s an intelligently piloted spacecraft.

 

Birds and planes are so familiar to us that when we see strange objects in the sky, we tend to classify those objects as something within our experience:  birds, planes, stars, meteors, perhaps even “swamp gas.”  Flying saucers may not be in our actual daily experience, but most people have some concept of what they might be.  If you ask them, they will likely answer, “manned” space vehicles.

 

More recently, drones are becoming ubiquitous.  Because of them, we now can add to our list of possibilities as to what UFOs are.  If they are unmanned drones, then we must ask, are they coming from Iran, or from other planets?

 

Astronomers and other scientists have, for years now, been searching for signs of technological civilizations on other planets.  The discovery that exo-planets are a common feature of the galaxy makes that search seem worthwhile.  So far, however, the search has been fruitless.  We have made the same mistake:  to expect the unknown to conform to our experience of the known.  Because our technology broadcasts (unintentionally) radio waves into space, we somehow expect that alien technologies will do the same.  If so, we should detect their transmissions.  Why haven’t we?  It is because, they might transmit, for three or four hundred years, but that is a tiny slice of time, compared to the estimated age of the galaxy.  We are not finding such signals.  We may never.   Any advanced aliens out there have likely moved far beyond that stage.

 

Experiments in our own laboratories suggest that emerging technologies may soon render electro-magnetic spectrum communications inefficient and obsolete.  Such topics as quantum entanglement are at present considered “far-out” physics, but they are in fact, based in solid science.

 

Even putting all that aside, there is one glaring inconsistency in most UFO sighting reports:  we can see them.  That should not be possible.  If the space aliens possess technology so advanced that they can cross trillions of miles of interstellar space, with all its hazards, then surely, they possess stealth technology that can make them invisible to all our detection methods.  Even here on earth, we are capable of amazing stealth, not only in radar, but even in the visible light spectrum.

 

The inconsistency is that UFOs behave as if they wish to avoid detection, and yet at the same time, they seem clumsy in those efforts.  We see them.  They “run away.”  None of that makes sense.

 

Finally, there is the question:  if there are space aliens in our atmosphere, are they hostile?  If they are, then we are helpless against them.  Science fiction movies glamorize heroic battles to defeat the aliens, but we cannot even defend the planet against a potential swarm of giant meteors.  Any advanced aliens could easily redirect a few thousand asteroids to crash into our planet with devastating effect, while keeping themselves at a safe distance. 

 

By the way, what would the space aliens want from us?  Surely, they can synthesize anything they could wish for, and do so from the most common element in the universe:  hydrogen.  Who knows what they could manufacture from dark matter, the unknown material that comprises 80 percent of the matter in the universe?  Who knows, they might even have four-D-printers!

 

After all that, we must ask, what are the UFOs, and why are they here?  The bottom-line answer:  they are something we cannot begin to imagine.  Their reasons, if any, are hopelessly inscrutable.

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Why CAN we detect UFOs?

UFOs try to hide, but they're not very good at it. If they are the products of a highly advanced technological civilization, their efforts to hide should be foolproof. But they do get seen, detected on radar, and even photographed. So--- what gives?

One set of possibilities that rarely gets considered is that UFOs may be leftovers from extinct civilizations. They may even be experiments gone awry from surviving exo-civilizations. Or they may be automated machines that have somehow gone rogue, either through defects, damage, or unforeseen consequences of their built-in artificial intelligence features.

If anything like this is the case, then it becomes easier to explain why UFOs seem to behave irrationally. Simply put, the UFOs that we do see are indeed irrational. They are programmed to avoid detection, to avoid capture, to avoid crashing, but otherwise, they sometimes act in ways that cannot be explained in logical terms.

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Another possible explanation for some "alien encounters" is that the
supposed space aliens are experimental half-human half-animal
hybrids from secret laboratories on earth.  This is perhaps the
last and final frontier of "forbidden science."

Going back at least as far as the 1920s, suggestions were made that such
half-human creatures could combine the basic intelligence of humans with
the strength and obedience characteristics of certain animals, most notably apes.

In the 1930s, succesful experiments proved that under certain conditions,
human egg/sperm could be combined with animal egg/sperm in a test tube,
and made to grow to a certain extent.

When news of this leaked out, there was a public outcry, including from the
Pope.  The experiments were supposedly halted, but in all likelihood, continued in secret.

One hypothesis is that some form of anti-gravity or artificial-inertia has been
developed that can endow aircraft with extraordinary flight and maneuver
capabilities--- but that the force field produced by such propulsion is fatal after
only a few hours of exposure to it.

Enter the expendable half-human, which has no legal protections.

Such creatures could be intelligent enough to be trained to fly and maneuver
over simple courses.  But between their own limitations, and the limitations of
experimental aircraft, the occasional mishap is to be expected, accounting
for some of the sightings and crashes.

With the recent developments of drones and computerized artificial
intelligence, the need for these "biological" pilots will rapidly decrease,
except in the case of bio-computers which use brain tissue to form processors.

All of this is, of course, pure speculation.

Please excuse me now, there is a knock at my door.
My oh my, why are both those men at the door dressed in black suits?
Hey! Where are you taking me? Let go! AAAAAHHHH!!!!

---Robert
from an undisclosed location

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Are UFOs Using Laws of Nature We Don't Know About?

 

It is unlikely that human scientists have discovered every fundamental law of nature.  Maybe scientists elsewhere in the galaxy are using laws of nature we do not know about.  If the universe is populated by exo-civilizations with advanced science, it is likely that many of them are very ancient.  If so, they have a very large head start on us.  Given the exponential increase in scientific advance, even a hundred year head start could be vastly enormous.

 

The reason for mentioning this is something called, the Fermi Paradox.  Enrico Fermi, the vaunted nuclear physicist, is said to have once asked—concerning exo-civilizations—where is everybody? He pointed to calculations that showed that, even without faster-than-light travel, planet earth should by now have been visited by at least one, and possibly many, of the supposed exo-civilizations that populate the galaxy.  One way or another, we should by now be overrun by them.

 

Various solutions to the Fermi paradox are proposed.  One of them is that we are the one and only technologically advanced civilization in the galaxy.  Another is that civilizations, once they reach a “bottleneck” stage of technology, self-destruct.

 

A more interesting proposal is that technological civilizations eventually advance beyond a singularity of development.  In that stage, they utilize laws of nature that enable them to transcend the known limitations of physics.  Some variations on this theme propose that alien civilizations no longer need physical bodies as we know them, but rather, can take on forms that we might consider to be unknown forms of energy.

 

Such creatures might not need space-ships to travel vast distances.  Or, if they do, these ships might have propulsion systems that incorporate something like quantum entanglement, which suggests the possibility of instantaneous travel across the universe.  Such space-ships would not be constrained by the laws of nature which we know about, and could perform in ways that we consider impossible.

 

Psychic means of communication and travel would enable such creatures to explore the universe without physically leaving home.

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US Navy drafting new guidelines for reporting UFOs

US Navy:  UFOs are Worthy of Respectful Study

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/04/us_navy_drafting_new_guidelines_for_reporting_ufos.html

These days, few educated people are dismissive of the idea that, elsewhere in the galaxy, there may be advanced technological civilizations capable of space travel.  We have no actual evidence for believing that there are, but the notion seems eminently plausible nonetheless.

When the United States Navy and Air Force affirm that eye witness reports of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) can no longer be ignored, it is worthwhile for the rest of us to take notice.  For decades, pilots both civilian and military, have been aware that, pilots who reported having seen UFOs, were often labeled as mentally unstable.  For a professional pilot, such a label can end one’s career.  Therefore, when pilots saw unknown aircraft performing maneuvers of which no known aircraft are capable, they often made no report of the sighting.

Now, the cat is out of the bag.  The reports are being officially acknowledged as worthy of respectful investigation.  The downside to this is that, the “I told you so” enthusiasts will predictably come to the fore, vying with each other to produce the most spectacular accounts; little green men will become fashionable once again.  At the other extreme, skeptics will struggle to find a “normal” explanation for the abnormal sightings, such as optical illusions, or even hoaxes. 

Is there a middle ground?

The temptation is to speculate that some of the sightings are those of space-craft from faraway planets.  Even Oumuamua, the asteroid that streaked through our solar system from another star system, was closely evaluated by astronomers for any indication that it was intelligently manufactured or directed.

Throughout history, mysteries of the unknown were explained in terms of the known (or believed).  In the 1800s, UFOs were reported to be flying ships, ships of the wooden sailing vessel variety.  In medieval times, there were reports of witches flying on brooms.  In modern times, supposed alien spaceships are assumed to be piloted by alien pilots, because our own aircraft are manned by pilots.

The reality, if and when it becomes known, may turn out to be something entirely different from what our experience leads us to extrapolate.

For the Navy and Air Force, there is no practical concern that the UFOs might be extraterrestrial space craft.  Even if they are, our technology would be utterly incapable of dealing with them, despite science fiction movies to the contrary.  The actual concern of the government is that our earthly adversaries, can we call them enemies, might be developing advanced technology that poses an existential threat to our nation.

This fear is not entirely without precedent.  During World War 2, the Nazis developed the V-2 rocket, against which there was no defense.  Had the war continued a few more years, such rockets could conceivably have reached the United States.

I do not lay awake at night worrying that Russia or China has made a spectacular, secret break-through in physics, but neither can we ignore the likelihood that they are doing their best to do so, and to weaponize it.

Our best path forward is to study the aerial phenomena that we observe, to explore all avenues of conjecture, even the seemingly silly ones, and to apply discipline and rigor to draw useful conclusions.

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Why Aren't There More Earth-Like Planets ?

According to some theories, the galaxy should be overrun by technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations.  The fact that no evidence of this has been found, is often referred to as the Fermi Paradox, which famously asks, "Where is everybody?"

In my view, this paradox is intensified by the fact that so far, very few earth-like planets have been discovered by astronomers, and even these seem to be very poor candidates for life.  They are unlikely to contain technological civilizations.

It is not surprising that few earth-like planets would have formed by natural means--however, if there were alien civilizations, even a very few of them, they likely would have been able to modify the planets they found, so as to make them suitable for life.

This theoretical process is called, "terraforming," the altering of a planet so as to make it possess an atmosphere, water, and regulated temperatures, among other features of planet earth.  Such planets would be expected to have stable orbits around stable stars.

Of course, if the aliens come from a planet unlike earth, and if they were capable of terraforming, they would be expected to prefer planets like their own.  They would transform planets to meet their own standards and needs.  If they did so, we would expect to see a class of planets that exist in large numbers, that closely resemble each other.

So far, this does not seem to be the case.  We do not even find a large number of planets that meet the needs of any technological civilization.

Perhaps the closest we have come to finding evidence of alien technology is to observe "Tabby's star,"  a star which might be surrounded by an encircling cosmic structure being built.  Reasonable conjectures have been made that the strange behavior of light from Tabby's star could be due to a project in process, a partially completed structure, designed to capture and use all the energy from the star.

Suppose that one or more stars became completely encircled by such hypothesized structures.  Would they appear to us as very large, red giant stars?

In any case, we must consider that alien techno-civilizations might be very different from what we expect.  Even if they began as we did, they might have followed a completely different path, especially once they made discoveries about the laws of nature that we cannot imagine, and applied them to technologies that not only far surpass our own, but are a different breed apart.

In our search for hypothesized alien civilizations, we should be searching not only for radio signals, but for "Tabby-like" stars, and planetary systems that seem to be customized.  If we do not find them, then we must consider two alternative theories:  either we are utterly alone, or else, the aliens are so far beyond us in advancement that we would not recognize them as such if we saw them.
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The Physics of UFOs

I am sure we all have some basic familiarity with the controversy associated with UFO reports. I am probably one of the few interested persons who are completely undecided about these reports. And here is why.

Recently, I have watched and read several online evaluations by credentialed scientists concerning speculations about the physics of UFOs. These evaluations propose the hypothesis that the UFOs are of exo-planetary origin, products of a highly advanced technology.

I am disappointed with these evaluations, especially as some of them come from men whom I admire, trust and respect.

If we accept as a hypothesis (and I believe it to be a reasonable one) that there exists life on faraway planets in our galaxy, and if we accept that on some of those planets there are highly advanced technological societies capable of interstellar space travel, then there are some necessary conclusions that rule out the Hollywood scenarios about “space invaders.”

These scenarios are ludicrous because they portray the space aliens as being even more primitive than our current technology. For example, we already have stealth aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles. It is easily foreseeable that in the next few years, we will have stealth aircraft that are unmanned, or perhaps piloted by some form of robotics.

In addition to this, we have semi-secret technologies such as HAARP which portend weapons systems of the near future that will render completely obsolete our present navies, armies and air forces. Even more secret technologies are undoubtedly in process of development.

Therefore, the idea that space aliens will send vulnerable, easily detectable space ships, manned by octopoid pilots, into our airspace, and that we may then find a way to defeat them, is too ridiculous to contemplate.

As a very simple example, why would the aliens not simply redirect a few large asteroids to earth and literally bombard us “back into the stone age?” This kind of stand-off attack would be completely safe for them. So much for the idea of resistance to the aliens.

Any technology capable of interstellar travel has both methods and motivations that are vastly beyond our comprehension.

Their methods would appear to us to be almost magical. As our own technology advances at near exponential rates, our physicists are already exploring ideas such as space warping, non-local entanglement, and quantum computing.

There is therefore little doubt that a technology even a thousand years older than ours, could exterminate humanity with barely more thought than flicking a crumb off one’s sleeve. We would pose no more of an obstacle to them than does an anthill to a bulldozer.

So why has this not happened? Why are we not already extinct or conquered?

The answer must lie not only in their capabilities, but also in their motivation. To begin with, why would an alien civilization have any interest at all in conquering us? We have nothing they need. Such aliens could synthesize from hydrogen, literally anything they could desire. We would not be worth the inconvenience of the trip, much less a military operation.

The one thing that aliens might desire from us is knowledge--- not knowledge that we could give them, but rather, the kind of knowledge gained from observing a newly discovered species on the ocean floor, or observing a primitive tribe in the rainforest.

Indeed, they could already be observing us very closely, and leaving no clue as to their presence. If our surveillance technology is capable of photographing individual humans from 100 miles above the earth, then it is entirely reasonable to believe that an advanced technology could survey us in details that far surpass anything we presently have. Combine that with electromagnetic spectrum surveillance, and a space alien could for all practical purposes be at your elbow this very moment, and we would have no way of knowing this. Does a paramecium under the microscope detect the biologist?

Any space aliens could easily have been observing us in every intimate detail for millennia. And since we can have no information about them, speculation about it is futile.

This brings us to the phenomena of UFO reports by credible observers. If one were to believe that these observations were of alien spacecraft, he would have to answer all the issues raised in this piece so far. If they can get here from there, then why are they so inept as to be seen? And if they are unconcerned about being seen, why do they appear to be clumsily attempting to be undetected? Why, for example, would they hover over a busy airport for several minutes, and then suddenly run away? Why would they try to have it both ways?

The answer, I think, lies in the US Air Force’s B-2 bomber. I saw one of these things fly over a sports stadium, and I can assure you that it is an awesome sight that no television can adequately convey.

But before the existence of the B-2 became public, there were sightings by an uninformed public, and some credible observers thought that surely these machines were of no earthly technology.

Despite the best efforts of the Air Force to keep secret the B-2, the craft were occasionally seen. The Air Force cannot yet make their aircraft completely invisible, and a slip-up is bound to occur now and then.

There can be little doubt that worldwide, governments have secret aircraft under development. And despite their best efforts at concealment, there will be the occasional mistake, the occasional sighting. To maintain secrecy, perhaps there really are “men in black” who intimidate witnesses into silence, or ridicule them into shame. But they are not space aliens, even if they wish to be portrayed as such, to confuse foreign intelligence services.

These secret projects are what I believe explains UFO sightings, those that are not hoaxes or misidentified weather balloons.

As to the existence of alien spacecraft, if they do exist, they did not cross interstellar space by being so primitive that we could hope to detect them. They could be so far advanced that the craft are able to dematerialize, and to do other feats that would appear magical to our most advanced technologists.

I will issue one caveat that, however improbable, puts me into the undecided category concerning UFO reports. UFOs may be space junk. Not of course, the kind of space junk that we have in orbit around earth. But if there are (as I believe there well could be) highly advanced exo-technologies in our galaxy, then their space junk would be of a much higher caliber than ours. Several possibilities could be put forward, but one of these is the thought of an extra-terrestrial civilization that went extinct, or otherwise lost control of its technology.

Certain machines that had been slated for scrap might have somehow “gotten loose,” and gone rogue, so to speak. If so, and if not under intelligent control, such defective machines might be roaming the galaxy, and exhibiting the kind of irrational behavior that UFO reports seem to portray.

And these would be precisely the kinds of exo-technology that we might capture. An interesting conjecture, I think.

But until I am convinced otherwise by incontrovertible evidence, the best reason I have for believing in extraterrestrial UFOs is for fun and entertainment.
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