Aliens are Lurking in the Dark Forest—a Serious Scientific Theory—and Beyond

.

There is a theory described at

https://mysteriousuniverse.org/2020/01/the-dark-forest-theory-a-grim-answer-for-where-all-the-aliens-are/

which suggests a solution to the Fermi Paradox.  It proposes that there are many space-faring technological civilizations among the stars and planets of our galaxy, but that we have not detected them, because they are hiding.  Furthermore, the Dark Forest Theory (DFT) posits that they are hiding not only from us, but also, from each other.

And with good reason.

In the galaxy presumed by the DFT, every technological civilization that arises has one priority:  to survive.  As in any wilderness or frontier, only the fittest survive.  There are two main methods of doing this.  One of them is to eliminate (kill) all threats.  The other method is to hide from those threats that one cannot eliminate.

It can be argued that any civilization that does not successfully execute one or both of these survival methods does not survive.  Those who failed no longer live.  Therefore, all the surviving exo-planetary alien civilizations have either eliminated the threats against them, or are hiding.

As reasonable as this theory sounds, there are those who argue against it. 

The dissenters propose that, in order to survive, an alien civilization has to be, well, civilized.  Being civilized, means that a society has to solve its problems in an orderly way that furthers its progress.  In the early stages, this means using the “kill or be killed” policy, but in the later stages, there comes a time when this becomes counter-productive.  War is expensive.  Instead of producing wealth, it destroys it.  Even though warfare does incentivize technological advancements, it does so only in the early stages.  As the destructive potential of advanced technology increases, the risk of both sides destroying each other reaches unacceptable levels.  Therefore, the optimum survival strategy requires cooperation.  Let’s call that, the Friendly Aliens Theory (FAT).

If there are numerous exo-planetary alien civilizations in the galaxy, one of these theories may be correct.  Indeed, some combination of them may apply.  For example, they may be at war with each other, but in circumstances that favor defense over offense.  One might compare that condition to the situation in World War One, where both opposing sides were safer in their own trenches, than they were when attacking across the “no man’s land” that separated them.

The main problem with the FA Theory, compared to the DF Theory, is that, if the aliens are not in hiding, then we have not yet solved the Fermi Paradox.  If all the neighbors are friendly, they should stop in and say hello.  Even if the distances are too great, they should at least turn the front porch light on, that is, to send some sort of signal.  Instead, we see only darkness; we hear only silence.

What is it, then?  Should we favor the Dark Forest Theory, the Friendly Alien Theory, or the Trenches Theory?

Before we settle on one of these, we should carefully consider the possibility that none of them is even close to being right.  We may be anthropomorphizing, that is, assuming that the aliens are like us, at least in terms of how they (and we) solve the problem of survival.

Let’s speculate.  Let’s do so reasonably.

Let’s speculate that life has arisen on faraway planets.  Let’s assume that on a dozen or so of them, life arose billions of years ago, as it did on earth, but that on those dozen or more planets, either the event occurred long before it did on earth, or else, that it afterward, developed much more quickly than we did.  In either case, we are reasonably speculating that any space-faring civilization is much older than ours.  Indeed, even the most advanced civilization on earth is only about five thousand years ahead of the hunter-gatherer phase.  Five thousand years compared to a galaxy is the blink of an eye.

Moreover, because technology moves at an ever-faster pace, we have advanced amazingly far in only the last five hundred years.  In less than a century we both invented the first airplane, and traveled to the moon and back.

What this tells us is that, an exo-civilization that is even five thousand years ahead of us could be so far advanced that, to us, its capabilities would seem magical.  “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Arthur C. Clarke, "Profiles of The Future", 1961

Five thousand years may seem like a long time (okay, it is a long time), but there may be alien civilizations that are a million years, or much more than that, older than ours.  At compound interest, at the accelerating pace of technological advancement, that million years could provide an unimaginable advantage to the older civilization.

What effect age has on survivability, however, is not the main issue here.  One could propose that the first interstellar civilization could easily have conquered the entire galaxy.  Or, one could propose that it chose not to do so, but pursued some other objective, for example, galactic brotherhood.

The effect of age would very likely mean that a million-year-old civilization might have become so vastly advanced technologically, that it has moved into realms that we cannot imagine.

Consider that our scientists now claim to have discovered the existence of dark matter.  Consider further that, aside from its gravitational effects, we have virtually no idea what dark matter might be.  How much less we can imagine, then, what could potentially be done by using dark matter?

Is there a science of dark physics?  Dark chemistry?  Dark biology?  Dark psychology?

Then ask yourself, what else might there be?  Are there fundamental laws of nature that we have not discovered?  Might not any sufficiently advanced alien technology have discovered them, and employed them in their technology?

To speculate even further, might aliens have harnessed the powers of pure consciousness?  Might they have moved beyond the need for physical bodies?  Might they be able to travel between universes?

What has all this to do with Fermi and the Dark Forest?  Only this:  we can only speculate, and our speculations may be hopelessly wrong.

.

Are UFOs Sinister?

.

As I have pointed out previously, most of the UFO theories do not make sense.  For example, if UFOs are spacecraft from an advanced civilization, why do they seem to try to hide, but so often fail to achieve even the primitive level of stealth that earthly aircraft can achieve?

 

There are other paradoxes as well.  For example, what could alien planetary civilizations possibly seek to gain from us?  If they wish to conquer us, they could have done so long ago, with less effort than it takes a bulldozer to destroy an ant hill at a construction site.  They would not even need to expose themselves to our weapons.  They could destroy us from afar, for example, by directing a few large asteroids to smash into our planet.

 

As far as our mineral resources, highly advanced technology could easily synthesize any element or molecule they desire, from hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe.  As the famous science fiction writer, Arthur C Clarke wrote, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

 

One thing that the supposed aliens could gain from us, that they could not manufacture, is knowledge.  While their knowledge of physics is assuredly vastly greater than ours, they might be interested in such things as social structures.  Whether from mere curiosity, or from a more practical motive, they might wish to study us.  However, such studies are best done without interfering with the society being studied.  UFOs (even if they do not exist!) have already exerted some influence on us, if only in our arts and entertainment.

 

Once again, we find that all the theories of UFOs have defects.  There remain only two that have none, or at least, no defects so serious as to disqualify them.  One of them is that UFOs are exactly what the government has been telling us since the famous Roswell incident:  that UFO reports are prompted by misidentified ordinary objects (such as aircraft or stars), or by hoaxes.  Case closed.

 

Even that theory has some holes in it, but so far as we in the general public can prove, it might be right.

 

The other plausible theory is that UFO reports are substantiated accounts of extraordinary phenomena, one of them possibly being that they are space-faring objects which are produced by alien, technological civilizations on distant planets.

 

This theory, while dramatic on the face of it, is not at all unreasonable, considering the size and scope of the observable universe.  Most people who know anything about science seem to accept as a given that such alien civilizations must surely exist.

 

This second theory still presents us with the problems, not so much of who, but of why, which we have already examined.  The question of why, if not plausibly resolved, could disqualify all the theories except the “misidentified objects” theory.

 

If that theory is also wrong, then is there a plausible one?  There is.

 

To consider what that theory might be, we must begin with the plausible premise that the government has at least some knowledge of UFOs that they are hiding from us.  What would the government hide, and why?  What would its purpose be?

 

After all, most people seem already willing, and able, to soberly accept the proposition that alien planetary civilizations exist.  No surprise there.  The public is also willing to accept that UFOs are possibly spacecraft from those aliens.  Again, little surprise.  Those two public attitudes being commonplace, then why would the government hide from us any knowledge it has that UFOs are what many of us already suppose they are?  Wouldn’t the public reaction be little more than a shrug, or at most, an outpouring of curiosity?

 

Apparently, the government does not think so.

 

To be sure, the US Navy has released audio-video evidence of at least one actual, official UFO sighting.  This did not result in public panic, or any of the negative reactions that some have proposed is the reason for secrecy.  The idea that, “the public cannot handle it,” is discredited.

 

That leaves us with this question:  might there actually be some government knowledge that we truly could not handle?  Even if there were no riots, revolutions or other spectacular result, might the public be so disturbed by the facts that confidence in our institutions would collapse, and collapse to a critical degree?

 

My suspicion is that there is evidence, of such a nature, that competent government analysis has concluded that such is the case.  Revealing it would bring about catastrophe.

 

As to what that evidence is, or why the conclusion is so terrible, I can of course only speculate.  But there is the possibility, and I think even the probability, that those high in the government believe it.

 

Imagine what would happen if the president of the United States, or perhaps a respected international body of authorities, began a speech, televised worldwide, which began with some words such as these:

 

“Ladies and gentlemen of the world, we have incontrovertible news about the UFOs.  The news is bad.  It is very bad.  We have been, and continue to be, completely at the mercy of a powerful force beyond our control.  That force is sinister, and it has no mercy.  Thus far, we have appeased it. The appeasement involves taking steps that you would, under ordinary circumstances, find utterly and unspeakably abhorrent.  We do not know how much longer we can stave off the inevitable doom we face.  Perhaps we can do so for years, even centuries.  But, the sacrifices now being made will soon become obvious.  They will be painful.  Prepare yourselves, because they involve you and your loved ones.  They are these:”

 

This theory has only one factor in its favor:  it fits all the known facts better than any other theory so far proposed.
.